CAPITAL WATCH

The river It’s easy to forget that for centuries, the Thames was a critical piece of natural infrastructure. London was a port long before it was a city. By the 1920s, London was the world’s largest and busiest port, handling over 40 million tonnes a year at its peak. Of course, the Thames can divide the city as much as connect it. This lack of connectivity is felt much more keenly in the east of the capital than the west. There is only a single road bridge crossing, itself well beyond London, to the east of Tower Bridge. Going west for 20 miles from the same starting point, you will find 16 opportunities to cross. The imbalance – as much a legacy of politics as geography (the Thames is much wider in the east) – has no doubt impacted economic development in the east of London, lengthening both commutes and supply chains. As roads and railways developed, the impact of the river as barrier diminished. While London’s public transport system began with the horse- drawn omnibus, it was the advent of the London Underground that allowed Londoners to move at speed and at scale. London’s (and the world’s) first underground railway, known originally as the Metropolitan Railway, carried 38,000 people on its opening day. Using CACI analysis of a 10-minute walking radius surrounding each station, there is clear evidence that the Elizabeth Line will bring in commuters from a more diverse workforce catchment. Whilst 22 per cent of the stations are dominated by “City Sophisticates”, and both “Executive Wealth” and “Successful Suburbs” account for a combined further 40 per cent, there are seven stations set to open in walking catchment areas designated “Struggling Estates”. Crossrail and the City of London Corporation estimate that up to 181,000 jobs will be created by 2023 as a result of Crossrail, with 47 per cent of these located in the Thames Gateway. Prime office rental levels have increased by an average of two-thirds since 2009 in submarkets where a Crossrail interchange has been developed. Clearly, whilst this growth cannot be entirely attributed to the introduction of Crossrail, it is no coincidence that office locations within walking distance of the Elizabeth Line have seen significant increases in rent. It is not just commercial property that has benefited from the development of Crossrail. The project is scheduled to support a total of 180,000 new homes along the route by 2026, with over half of new development applications citing the Elizabeth Line as a key factor in location selection. Looking further ahead, Crossrail 2 could well have a similar impact on central London, with a 10 per cent anticipated increase in network capacity. And, whilst the Elizabeth Line will help connect east to west, Crossrail 2 will connect Hertfordshire in the north to Surrey in the south. Sadiq Khan emphasises the importance of Crossrail 2, suggesting it is “essential for the future prosperity of London.” There will also be those eyeing early investment in areas such as Wimbledon, where transport connectivity will drastically improve with up to 30 trains an hour heading into Central London. Perhaps, however, the scale of Crossrail 2’s impact could be even greater than the Elizabeth Line, with TfL explaining that it is a “scheme for the future of the whole country, not just London". Growth cannot be entirely attributed to the introduction of Crossrail Harrow Barnet Enfield Hillingdon Ealing Hounslow mersmith Ham and Fulham Kensington and Chelsea City of tminster Wes City of London Brent Camden Haringey Islington Hackney Tower Hamlets Waltham Forest Redbridge Havering Barking and Dagenham Newham Greenwich Bexley Bromley Croydon Sutton Merton Wandsworth Lambeth Southwark Lewisham Kingston upon Thames Richmond upon Thames Transport and London’s Development Transport infrastructure and real estate have always been closely linked. Every city thrives on proximity – of individuals, businesses, institutions and supply chains. London’s transport infrastructure is a testament to our desire to maintain this proximity, even where pollution, population growth and planning policies have pushed Londoners out of the city centre. This article tells the story of how London’s built environment and transport network have both evolved – in parallel and, at times, in total opposition to one another. By Kat Hanna, Associate Director, Urban Change kat.hanna @cushwake.com TRANSPORT: WHAT'S NEXT CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 18 TRANSPORT: WHAT'S NEXT 19 TRANSPORT: WHAT'S NEXT