EMERGING LONDON 2018

WORKSPACE As London’s population expands its workforce will become much more widely distributed, as previously solely residential areas gain increasing amounts of workspace. Large new developments such as Canada Water and Battersea Power Station (see pages 14 and 42) are creating major new office hubs. The type of workspace that emerges in these locations is likely to have a significant bearing on local retail and leisure provision. RISE OF INDIE RETAIL Londoners, most notably the younger half of the capital’s demographic, are clamouring for a more experiential retail and leisure offer, based around independent operators offering authenticity, provenance and experience. These demands are likely to create opportunities and challenges in equal measure. RETAILER PREFERENCES London’s status as a leading world city continues to exert a magnetic pull on a wide variety of businesses. Those who are focused on the capital’s indigenous rather than tourist customer base are already showing a greater willingness to disperse across a wider geographic area. MACRO-ECONOMIC FACTORS During the last global downturn, London largely held on to its position relative to other cities, so a future straight economic downturn would INTANGIBLES Part of what makes London special is a layer of intangibles that transforms it from being merely a place to a living entity. The sense of optimism, for example, that prevails across the capital, from a suburban East London housing estate to the bright lights of the West End, can’t necessarily be detected in a building or Tube train. But it can definitely be felt in the thousands of thronging shops, bars and restaurants which permeate the capital. Future retail and leisure development which acknowledges and can respond to the essence of these intangibles is most likely to succeed. at most decelerate the pace of major urban regeneration projects. Much trickier to predict is the impact of Brexit, but so far, no major studies have suggested a significant negative impact on the city as a whole. TRANSPORT Travel flow through London will change significantly as a result of Thameslink improvements in 2018 and the full opening of Crossrail at the end of 2019, together with increasing modal shift to bicycle and pedestrian transport. New retail and leisure concepts at transport hubs and along new travel routes are emerging. PLANNING The Mayor of London’s latest London Plan , currently still a draft, is firmly based around growth; including a city-wide annual target of 65,000 new homes. A willingness to accept densification of existing areas, a major departure from previous London planning policy, is likely to have a profound effect on many parts of Greater London, and create untold possibilities for expanded places. A London skyline buzzing with robot drones making parcel deliveries is as unlikely as one filled with airborne jet-propelled people carriers, reckon futurologists. Yet tech developments are slowly but surely having an effect on the capital – automatically-driven tubes have been running under central London for years and driverless road pods are currently being trialled in Greenwich and at Heathrow Airport. Other innovative solutions, from kinetic paving stones which use footfall to power street lights and hydrogen- powered generators for large buildings, are well advanced. While the capital’s IT connections are generally up to scratch, one area which will need close attention in the coming years is power supply. Ensuring that the city’s lights stay on as whole new town centres like Brent Cross South (see page 48) are connected up to a historic supply grid will require a high degree of tech dexterity. We believe that the parts of London which put themselves at the frontier of IT advances are also those most likely to present interesting real estate-led opportunities. TECH TRENDS London’s status as a leading world city is undiminished, despite the uncertainty of recent years. Successive independent studies, such as the Global City Power Index, continue to place London comfortably in the top 10. While past performance does not guarantee future positioning, it is clear that London is unlikely to relinquish its title as a key global powerhouse in the near future. The relative assuredness of London’s global position transfers down to a local level to have a positive, confidence-boosting effect on each of the capital’s 32 boroughs, plus the City of London. Key factors which will affect future development and progression in all 33 areas are: POPULATION The number of people drawn to London shows no sign of abating. Consensual forecasting suggests annual population growth of between 70,000 and 80,000 people until 2030. From a retail perspective, that will mean more potential shoppers; though how they will be distributed across the capital will depend significantly on where new housing and workspace development occurs. HOUSING As politicians of all hues scramble to increase the supply of housing within the capital, London’s housing stock is set to rocket. To accommodate the sheer volume of new homes, whole new districts like Wembley Park (see page 36) are appearing. A new urban ecosystem based on true mixed-use principles is evolving, which presents exciting opportunities for retail and leisure operators. ... it is clear that London is unlikely to relinquish its title as a global powerhouse in the near future. At a glance – KEY TRENDS ›› London will remain dominant as a leading world city ›› Population figures are expected to increase, despite macro- economic uncertainty ›› New homes will bring with them new spend and retail/ leisure opportunities… ›› … which will be coupled with greater provision of workspace outside central London ›› Densification of existing areas will create exciting possibilities for the creation of new retail/leisure offers ›› Recognising the intangibles which underpin London’s magnetism will be key for future retail/leisure operations LONDON: DRIVING CHANGE CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD EMERGING LONDON KEYNOTE | LONDON: DRIVING CHANGE 9 8