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The Fire: Realities of modern urban existence ablaze
In September 1666 a fire erupted at the Baker’s House,
Pudding Lane EC3. 395 acres of the City were devastated
and thousands of buildings destroyed. Plagued by disease,
congestion and chaos, this was a chance to rebuild the
City – it could be remodelled into a neat, ordered and
graceful place: a new London.
This new London never arrived. The practicalities of
an impatient city intervened. Tradesmen wanted to trade
and shopkeepers wanted to sell. The realities of urban
existence, rather than carefully choreographed plans,
fuelled the rebuilding of London.
Today, as ever, the pressures of urban existence are
shaping the City.
Housing in the capital is projected to experience a
shortfall of 1 million by 2036, and already, the average
home costs around 16 times average earnings. That the
City’s growing labour force requires housing, either
within or outside London, means developers have
an opportunity – perhaps a responsibility – to create
imaginative solutions.
Infrastructure is capable of creating new, easily
accessible neighbourhoods. Plans to extend the London
Overground into east London’s Barking Riverside
development, for example, will create up to 10,800 new
homes which could accommodate many workers.
With 84% of the City’s working population using public
transport to get to work it is positive that in just a few
years, Crossrail and Thameslink will improve London’s rail
capacity and connectivity.
The driverless car is expected to be in use in the next
ten years. Its introduction will release pressure on roads
and encourage cycling. Parking spaces will be freed up,
allowing for more cycle lanes and pocket parks, making
the City a more attractive place.
Along with availability of labour and transport
connectivity, digital connectivity will shape the City.
‘Technological readiness’ is now frequently used as a
measure of global competitiveness. Improved digital
infrastructure will provide an opportunity for the
City’s economy. It will raise productivity levels across
all industries, and support the development of new
subsectors such as FinTech.
The realities of urban existence will perennially push
innovations that change the physical, and now virtual,
fabric of the City.
The Industry: a prodigious capacity for reinvention
The City’s role during the Industrial Revolution was first
and foremost related to services - buying, selling and
speculating. It was also an industrial incubator, with 17th
century London manufacturers bringing in new techniques
from the continent and India before they spread to the
industrial cities of the north.
By the mid-17th century, it was a major international
port. Its docks were an emblem of trading connections
stretching from the East Indies to the New World.
Although the industry of the time, the docks never
managed to define London in any conclusive way. They
presented an opportunity, seized and exploited then
translated into something else.
The most pertinent shift for the modern City came in
1983, when Conservative Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher
began reforms that deregulated the UK’s financial markets.
Collectively known as ‘big bang’, the measures were
passed in 1986 and paved the way for the City of today:
a global financial centre.
In the past 15 years, the specialist workforce that carries
out international financial business has risen by a half.
The global value of assets in hedge funds has doubled
since the end of 2002 to reach $1.2 trillion. Investments
managed out of London are worth a fifth of the world
total (up from a tenth in 2002) and exports from Britain
generated by international law firms are three times higher
than they were in 1995.
The City has cultivated an economic cluster and is
a place where the best international players come to
compete. Since 24th June, this cluster has been reacting
to Brexit. The renegotiation of the UK’s membership of the
EU will remain a central issue for the City, and an issue that
spells uncertainty. Some things, however, are clear;
Firstly, leaders across all industries and segments have
the opportunity to galvanise the City. Secondly, the City’s
population and workforce has the chance to show, through
its everyday acts, that London remains open.
Finally, the City has a prodigious capacity for
reinvention – from the Roman Walls, to the Baker’s fire and
the Thatcher era ‘big bang’ the City has continued to move
outwards, skywards and onwards. Should it conquer its
latest hurdle it will be on track to being one of the world’s
great megacities: It will be taller and denser, it will be
digital, and it will have the potential to be more global and
interconnected than ever before.
Investments
managed out
of London are
worth a fifth
of the world
total
Future London skyline...
(Image: David Edwards)
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
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PAST, PRESENT, FUTURE