Cushman & Wakefield - Capital Watch Issue 03 2016

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...of the seven
suspended open-
ended property funds
have now reopened.
Over this period IPD
capital values have
fallen c.3%.
...year on year
increase in enquiries
and bookings for
conference centres
according to London
& Partners. The weak
pound has significantly
boosted tourism, with
London the principal
beneficiary.
Q3 retail sales volume–
up on last quarter.
Consumer confidence
remains above long
term average levels.
Annual inflation
has risen to 1.0% in
September from 0.5%
in June. This is the
highest for some time;
however NIESR predict
4% in H2 2017.
Deal Tracker: weighted price difference
pre Brexit
Prime yields v 10 year gilt
Consumer Confidence
Potential loss of
finance jobs post
Brexit according to a
report commission by
The City UK; but the
figure could be up to
35,000 in the event of
a ‘hard Brexit’.
...of premiums in
Lloyds of London are
underwritten in the EU.
The insurance industry
retains a relatively
global focus.
P
Br
Bri
7
40%
1.8%
1%
3,000
11%
-10
0
10
-20
-30
-40
-50
Consumer confidence (RHS) Average consumer confidence (Jan 00-current, RHS)
2001 Jul2002 Mar2002 Nov2003 Jul2004 Mar2004 Nov2005 Jul2006 Mar2006 Nov2007 Jul2008 Mar2008 Nov2009 Jul2010 Mar2010 Nov2011 Jul2012 Mar2012 Nov2013 Jul2014 Mar2014 Nov2015 Jul2016 Mar2016 Nov
Consumer Confidence Index
Consumer confidence dips but is above the long term
average. (Source: Gfk)
(Source: Cushman & Wakefield)
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
Q4 1999
Gap
Q3 2000Q2 2001Q1 2002Q4 2002Q3 2003Q2 2004Q1 2005Q4 2005Q3 2006Q2 2007Q1 2008Q4 2008Q3 2009Q2 2010Q1 2011Q4 2011Q3 2012Q2 2013Q1 2014Q4 2014Q3 2015Q2 2016
10-y Gilt WE Office
A healthy spread between prime yields and 10 years gilts.
(Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research, Bloomberg)
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-15% -20% -25% -10% -5% 0% 20% 25% 30%+
Weighted Mean
-1.5%
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
24
LONDON IN FIGURES